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Welcome to RiskyOil.com!Crude oil is a risky asset: Its price changes constantly. Even its volatility changes constantly. This website is mainly concerned with a short-term forecast: forecasting next Tuesday's price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and next Tuesday's closing quote of the Dow-Jones Industrial Average (DJIA).Our forecasts are based on a special bivariate asymmetric GARCH model. For detailed information on our project, the method we use and its implementation, click on one of the links on the menu. Prediction ellipses for the crude oil price (USD per barrel) and the DJIA for 2008-11-18 are shown in the figure below. For that day, our model says: WTI price and DJIA will be in the yellow area with probability 50%, within the ellipse with the solid line with probability 90%, and within the shaded area with probability 99%. The green dot marks the prices on 2008-11-11.  What happened the previous week?Here is the forecast from the week before. The red dot marks the actual, realized prices. A short account of events in that week is given in the News Track Record.  |
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