What happened
from 2008-10-08 to 2008-10-14?

In their efforts to restore confidence across financial markets, central banks in Australia, Europe, and North America, joined by their Asian counterparts, announced unprecedented co-ordinated interest rate cuts. (FT, 2008-10-08, 2008-10-09) Oil continued to fall following the latest US weekly inventories data. (FT, 2008-10-08) In its World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund IMF commented on the recent slide in commodity prices that it 'seemed to have been driven largely by perceptions that global growth is slowing and emerging evidence of a demand response to high prices - notably in the US - as well as by some favourable supply developments'. While the OPEC's call for an early 'emergency meeting' triggered speculation about production cuts, oil prices kept on falling. (FT, 2008-10-09) The International Energy Agency IEA slashed its forecast of global demand growth. Amid intensifying recession fears, European markets tumbled and crude oil prices plunged below $80 a barrel for the first time in more than a year. (FT, 2008-10-10, 2008-10-11) As eurozone governments agreed at the weekend to rescue the European banking system, markets rallied, and crude strengthened. (FT, 2008-10-13, 2008-10-14)

What happened
from 2008-10-01 to 2008-10-07?

The Monday 'meltdown on Wall Street' was said to have heralded the 'most volatile week' for world markets since the subprime crisis began a year ago: Equities struggled amid anxiety over the freeze in money markets and over the passage of the US government's revised banking sector rescue package. Weak economic data in the US and Europe added weight on market sentiment. 'Risk aversion and global weakness' were related to a strengthening of the US dollar. Oil prices dropped as US weekly inventories data indicated a 'substantial' weakening in demand. (FT, 2008-10-01, 2008-10-3) A string of further bank bail-outs at the weekend was reported to have triggered an escalation of fears about the safety of banks in Europe, the UK and Iceland. A 'wave of selling' particularly across emerging market equities and commodities 'in favour of government bonds, gold and the US dollar' sent several commodities producing economies, including Russia and Brazil, into a tailspin. WTI fell below $90 a barrel. The DJIA broke the 10,000 mark. (FT, 2008-10-06) Central banks continued to boost liquidity amid growing fears that the credit crunch had evolved a broad economy crunch. (FT, 2008-10-07)

What happened
from 2008-08-06 to 2008-08-12?

Oil prices dropped following fresh evidence of lower demand from latest US inventories data, while traders observed strong buying of put options providing insurance against further falls in prices. (FT, 2008-08-06) Supply concerns after Kurdish militants had attacked a key pipeline in eastern Turkey sent crude higher. (FT, 2008-08-07) But then, in spite of the outbreak of 'fierce fighting' in South Ossetia and the threat of war between Russia and Georgia, oil prices tumbled. 'Negative sentiment towards commodities', already being stoked by concerns on the global economic outlook, was exacerbated by a sharp rise in the dollar (the 'biggest one-day jump against the euro in eight years'). The move was triggered by a warning of economic downturn in the eurozone, coming from the European Central Bank's president and sparking 'talks that the ECB would be forced to abandon its hawkish policy stance and start cutting interest rates'. US stocks soared. (FT, 2008-08-08) Amid mounting tensions in the Caucasus, oil prices continued to fall, while the dollar rallied. (FT, 2008-08-11, 2008-08-12) In its monthly report, the International Energy Agency stated that the 'fundamentals of the oil market were easing thanks to a combination of slower demand growth and record production from OPEC'. (FT, 2008-08-12)

What happened
from 2008-07-30 to 2008-08-05?

Crude market was extremely volatile all week: As US inventories data 'failed to offer sufficient evidence of accelerating demand destruction', oil prices surged, then fell back on release of 'worse-than-expected economic data' from the US. (FT, 2008-07-30, 2008-07-31) The deadline for Iran to accept the latest proposal by the Western countries to back out of its nuclear programme was to end, with 'hawkish' rhetoric coming from Israel. Fears for the security situation in Nigeria were 'rumbling', and concerns over a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico. Signs that the OPEC had increased crude supplies, but 'would intervene if supply were to surpass demand' put further pressure on the market. (FT, 2008-08-01, 2008-08-04) New data on US personal consumption and expenditure fuelled concerns on inflation and economic slowdown. WTI sank to a three-month-low of $118 a barrel before rebounding slightly. (FT, 2008-08-04, 2008-08-05)

What happened
from 2008-07-23 to 2008-07-29?

Oil prices extended their retreat, 'fuelling declines in other commodities', after weekly US inventories data brought more evidence of slowing demand. (FT, 2008-07-23) The controversy among US lawmakers about whether to impose stricter limits on speculative activities in energy markets 'hit a new pitch'. (FT, 2008-07-23) It 'deepened as US regulators filed charges against a Netherlands-based trading fund for manipulating energy futures prices'. (FT, 2008-07-24) According to analysts, the recent increase in price volatility was brought about by falling liquidity in commodities markets, owing to 'financial institutions deleveraging', 'fresh worries about global economic growth', and 'potential new US legislation in commodities markets'. (FT, 2008-07-28) Oil prices briefly rallied after bomb explosions in Turkey and India and alleged attacks on pipelines in Nigeria. (FT, 2008-07-28) However, amid renewed concerns over weakening global demand, WTI crude fell below the $122 a barrel level in intraday trade. (FT, 2008-07-29)

What happened
from 2008-07-16 to 2008-07-22?

The slide in oil prices continued, after the latest US weekly data showed unexpected increases in stocks of crude, petrol and distillates, and thus more evidence of weakening demand. (FT, 2008-07-16) A sharp decline in US natural gas prices reportedly 'derailed a recovery for oil' after further supply disruptions in Nigeria. Crude fell below the $130 level. Inflation pressures eased and stocks rallied. (FT, 2008-07-17) Easing tension between western countries and Iran had been expected from weekend talks over Iran's nuclear programme. But talks 'disappointed', which was linked to a rebound in oil prices, helped by worries of output disruption from an impending hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. (FT, 2008-07-21) As the hurricane was set to miss offshore production facilities, crude plunged below $127 a barrel. (FT, 2008-07-22)

What happened
from 2008-07-09 to 2008-07-15?

Oil prices gathered fresh momentum after news that Iran had test-fired long-range missiles while weekly data showed lower-than-expected US crude stockpiles. (FT, 2008-07-09) More missile tests, but in particular news of a threatened strike by oil workers in Brazil, and the breach of ceasefire by Nigerian militants sent prices to a fresh record above $147 a barrel. Worries about two key US mortgage institutions weighed on the dollar which fell towards record lows against the euro. (FT, 2008-07-10, 2008-07-11) The 'fear that oil prices will stay high, and that the US will suffer a major bank collapse' drove 'wild' market volatility. It was heightened by an 'extremely bearish talk' on the US economic and financial outlook from Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman, following 'worrying retail sales and inflation data'. A sudden plunge in crude prices by more than $10 was triggered, the daily fall attaining more than $6. (FT, 2008-07-15)

What happened
from 2008-07-02 to 2008-07-08?

News on much-lower-than-expected US crude stockpiles, the threat of a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico and an 'intensifying war of words' between Iran and western countries over its nuclear programme sparked another price rally. WTI crude surged towards $146 a barrel (Brent even above). Refuelled fears of inflation, recession, and of further financial writedowns were exacerbated by concerns on the pending European Central Bank ECB's interest rate decision and the US payroll report. Global equities were sent into a 'tailspin'. (FT, 2008-07-02, 2008-07-03) After the ECB's signal that a quarter-point hike in eurozone interest rates would be a one-off the euro tumbled against the dollar, and crude dipped. (FT, 2008-07-03) But prices remained 'rampant' when entering the 4 July weekend. (FT, 2008-07-04) Then, crude fell $4, and more than $5 in the subsequent session. Traders related the fall to profit-taking, but particularly to a relief in Middle East tensions, lifted hurricane warnings, and the dollar recovery. Renewed concerns on the US financial sector deferred the ultimate rally in US equities. (FT, 2008-07-07, 2008-07-08)

What happened
from 2008-06-25 to 2008-07-01?

Increased US weekly inventories appeared to reflect an accelerating pace of decline in refinery consumption of crude oil. As traders were putting into question US refiners' willingness to buy the extra crude supplies promised by Saudi Arabia, oil prices plunged more than $5 a barrel. and, along with the Federal Reserve's suggestion to hold US interest rates, sparked volatile trading in US and European equities. (FT, 2008-06-25) Then, amid dollar weakening and growing worries over inflation and a prolonged US financial crisis, fresh supply concerns pushed oil prices past new records to peak above 143$ a barrel: Lybia threatened to cut supplies (in response to an US legislative proposal to sue OPEC members for doing so), and the OPEC's president was quoted to suspect that $150-$170 a barrel could be reached soon. (FT, 2008-06-26) Iran warned it would close the Strait of Hormuz for oil exports if attacked by Israel. (FT, 2008-06-30) The International Energy Agency IEA 'substantially downgraded its expectations for OPEC crude capacity' and said that current record prices were 'justified by fundamentals'. (FT, 2008-07-01)

What happened
from 2008-06-18 to 2008-06-24?

Latest US weekly inventories showed further signs of weakening fuel demand. Oil prices retreated, though limited by concerns about an imminent strike of oil workers in Nigeria. (FT, 2008-06-19) China's announcement to raise domestic fuel prices surprised the market, but with temporary effect as traders valued the implications as 'ambiguous'. The market was 'nervously awaiting' Sunday's meeting of oil consumers and producers in Jeddah, called by Saudi Arabia which had announced plans to increase production. In the run-up, opposition from Venezuela and Iran revealed the split within the OPEC over the leader’s unilateral decision. (FT, 2008-06-20) The oil summit failed to signal a significant policy shift, and Saudi Arabia's promise to raise its output was 'overshadowed by concerns': about supply disruptions in Nigeria and escalating tensions between Iran and Israel following reports on war simulations conducted by Israel and rumours of an attack on Iran's nuclear proramme. (FT, 2008-06-23, 2008-06-24)

What happened
from 2008-06-11 to 2008-06-17?

Strong Chinese oil import data, a larger-than-expected fall in US weekly inventories data despite evidence of lower demand, warnings of further pressure on supply from output problems in Canada, Russia, and Mexico, and oil workers' threat of a strike in Nigeria added to concerns on the recent surge in oil prices. (FT, 2008-06-11, 2008-06-12, 2008-06-13) Saudi Arabia, in response to criticism calling for a meeting between oil producers and consumers on June 22, announced in advance that it was planning to 'boost its oil production to its highest level in more than 25 years in order to bring down record prices'. (FT, 2008-06-15) Before traders began pondering the possible impact, renewed dollar weakness following the release of robust eurozone inflation data, and a fire at a North Sea oil platform sent crude to a record of nearly $140 a barrel though. (FT, 2008-06-16, 2008-06-17)

What happened
from 2008-06-04 to 2008-06-10?

Weekly data showed a sharp fall in US crude oil inventories and strong rises in refiners' product stocks. Though, crude oil prices tumbled, reportedly 'under selling pressure' by growing concerns about the outlook of consumer demand as Asian countries (Taiwan, Indonesia, India, and Malaysia) were reducing fuel subsidies. (FT, 2008-06-04, 2008-06-05) Then, oil prices began to climb, and in less than 36 hours WTI surged by more than $16 a barrel (including a one-day dollar record gain by more than $11) to peak above $139 and settle at a record closing price of just beneath. (FT, 2008-06-05, 2008-06-06) The start of this rally was related to a 'non-oil event': a surprise signal from the European Central Bank that it may raise eurozone interest rates in July. The US dollar plunged. Traders reported a 'massive' short-covering of short oil positions to be triggered. On the second day, 'fears over stagflation heightened' in the wake of the 'poorest' US employment data in 22 years. 'Buying hysteria' was observed after the threat from an Israeli minister of attacks on Iran’s atomic facilities, and a warning by Morgan Stanley, the investment bank, that $150 a barrel may be likely in two weeks. (FT, 2008-06-05, 2008-06-06, 2008-06-09) The US dollar 'managed a modest rally' after positive US housing data. (FT, 2008-06-10) Amid on-going debate about speculators' influence on oil prices, fundamental news came from the International Energy Agency IEA, surprising with a deep cut of its forecast for supply growth from non-Opec nations, warning 'supply growth so far this year has been poor and higher prices are needed to choke off demand to balance the market'. (FT, 2008-06-10)

What happened
from 2008-05-28 to 2008-06-03?

US crude oil stocks registered their largest weekly fall since 2004. However, concerns continued to weigh on oil prices that economies in Europe and the US have hit 'a demand destruction point' while demand growth in China, India or the Middle East is being bolstered by fuel subsidies. (FT, 2008-05-28, 2008-05-29) Calling for an 'energy revolution' to curtail oil demand, the International Energy Agency IEA urged respective goverments to re-think their subsidy policies and warned politicians in Europe not to cut fuel taxes. (FT, 2008-06-02) The OPEC reiterated that high 'prices do not reflect market fundamentals' and that the cartel would not decide on output levels before the September meeting. Ports in Mexico had to be closed ahead of the Atlantic hurricane season. (FT, 2008-06-02) The US dollar edged higher and oil prices retreated after the Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke spoke out on his concern about the dollar’s weakness and inflation, which was seen as an insinuation that cheap money policy was 'partly responsible for fuelling the rise in commodity prices'. (FT, 2008-06-03)

Though waving off growing concern that crude oil is in a speculative bubble, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission CFTC revealed a 'wide-ranging investigation into crude oil trading practices'. The CFTC announced measures to tighten its surveillance of markets by agreement of 'expanded information-sharing on daily trader positions' with the UK's Financial Services Authority FSA. (FT, 2008-05-29) They started a series of hearings particularly concerning commodity index trading and the role of institutional investors, in the course of which billionaire financier George Soros warned that commodity index funds 'were inflating a bubble' as 'index-buying was based on a misconception and commodity indices are not a legitimate asset class'. (FT, 2008-06-03)

What happened
from 2008-05-21 to 2008-05-27?

The surge of oil prices 'gathered pace', up more than $5 on the day, after a large fall in US weekly inventories was reported though rise was expected. This was funning 'fresh concerns about how central banks would deal with the growing threat of rising inflation and slowing growth'. (FT, 2008-05-21) On the following day, crude briefly spiked beyond $135 on news that China's demand for diesel had increased sharply, and crucially, long-term futures moved as high as $145. 'Confidence that supplies could meet demand in the next five to ten years crumbled', an analyst explained. Taiwan, Malaysia and Indonesia announced plans for urgent review their policy of energy subsidies. (FT, 2008-05-22)

'The market is really crazy,' said the OPEC's secretary-general upon asked for explanation. (FT, 2008-05-23) Crude traded lower 'as profit-taking and fears about the impact of high oil prices on the economy weighed on investor sentiment'. (FT, 2008-05-24) Supply concerns were further fueled by latest figures showing a strong rise of imports to Asia, a rapidly declining oil production in Mexico, and by claims of Nigerian rebels to have sabotaged a pipline. (FT, 2008-05-26) Amid rising consumer protests at soaring fuel costs and discussions about how to ration demand, crude slipped towards $130 a barrel, 'helped' by the rising dollar. A warning came from the International Energy Agency, 'that it would be "very, very optimistic" to assume oil prices would decline substantially in the next few years'. (FT, 2008-05-27)

What happened
from 2008-05-14 to 2008-05-20?

The weekly data on US crude and products inventories revealed a rise, but less-than-expected ahead of the driving season in the US. (FT, 2008-05-14) Another 'sign that record oil prices are slowing consumption in the industrialised world' was to come from the OPEC. In its monthly report the cartel adjusted its forecast for world oil demand in 2008 (though less than the IEA earlier), underscoring that 'factors beyond oil supply and demand' are lifting oil prices: dollar weakness, speculation, geopolitical tensions, and a 'shortage of refineries' being able to process light products from lower-quality crude. (FT, 2008-05-15)

Crude hit a new record of almost $128 a barrel after an 'extremely bullish forecast' by Goldman Sachs ('prices would average $141 a barrel in the second half of the year') and amid fears that China would need to buy more oil as the recent earthquake's damages to hydro-electric power facilities were becoming clear. (FT, 2008-05-16) Then, after a fresh plea from the US, Saudi Arabia 'broke ranks' and announced to increase production, reportedly to 'compensate for lower output' from other OPEC countries. Analysts considered it likely that Kuwait and United Arab Emirates would follow. (FT, 2008-05-16) The cartel's president and some members 'rushed to distance themselves from the Saudis', underlining that supplies were sufficient. Continued supply concerns and a forecast by 'legendary US oil investor' T. Boone Pickens ('crude would reach $150 a barrel this year') were blamed to send oil prices to almost $130 a barrel. 'It seems like oil traders now react to bullish gurus', an analyst put it. (FT, 2008-05-20)

What happened
from 2008-05-07 to 2008-05-13?

Oil prices extended their record-breaking run hitting a new high in each session.

Crude 'shrugged off' latest weekly data which showed a sharp rise in both US crude and petrol inventories. (FT, 2008-05-07) The International Monetary Fund warned that 'global inflation has re-emerged as a major threat to the world economy' 'due to soaring energy and food prices'. (FT, 2008-05-08) The OPEC reiterated its position that there was 'clearly no shortage of oil in the market', blaming the price surge on speculation. (FT, 2008-05-08) The International Energy Agency IEA, reducing its growth forecasts of oil demand for 2008 anew, related the high prices to 'fears for future supply and more specifically on the lack of spare volumes' and called on the OPEC to give a 'clear indication that it will rapidly provide more oil if stocks do not build in the very near future'. (FT, 2008-05-13)

A huge earthquake which hit Sichuan province in China on Monday was not mentioned in the press in this context yet, but can be expected to impact oil prices.

What happened
from 2008-04-30 to 2008-05-06?

Oil prices retreated on news of a further rise in US crude inventories. (FT, 2008-04-30) Signals of a pause in the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting cycle 'further bolstered the dollar and weighed on oil'. Whereas the rise in the dollar according to analysts 'did not unsettle' oil prices, they 'rallied strongly' after Turkish air strikes on Kurdish positions in northern Iraq. (FT, 2008-05-02) Amid releases of encouraging US employment and service-sector data raising 'hopes that the US economy might avoid recession' and news of new violence in Nigeria, crude set a record above $122 a barrel. 'Bullish sentiment was boosted' by a warning that '$150 to $200 a barrel seems increasingly likely over the next six to 24 months', reinforcing recent comments by the OPEC's president. The warning came from the Goldman Sachs analyst who in 2005 when oil traded at $55 a barrel 'correctly predicted a price super-spike above $100 a barrel'. (FT, 2008-05-05, 2008-05-06)

What happened
from 2008-04-23 to 2008-04-29?

The latest US weekly data revealed a surprise rise in crude inventories oil prices. (FT, 2008-04-23) However, prices surged by more than $3 after a US military vessel fired on an Iranian boat in the Gulf, while the cutback of the UK's North Sea oil production in the course of a strike at a Scottish refinery, and outages of Nigeria's output by strike and escalating violence fuelled further price concerns. (FT, 2008-04-26, 2008-04-28) The OPEC's president warned 'oil prices could hit $200 a barrel and there would be little the cartel could do to help', blaming the rise in oil prices on the dollar weakness. (FT, 2008-04-28) On the following day, oil prices declined sharply, reportedly 'on back of' a recovery in the dollar which was related to expectations concerning the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision, that the 'easing cycle – temporarily at least – could be put on hold'. (FT, 2008-04-29)

What happened
from 2008-04-16 to 2008-04-22?

Crude oil extended its record-breaking run ending up within striking distance of $120 a barrel. Prices reportedly found continued help from latest weekly US inventories data, again revealing unexpected falls in crude and petrol stocks, as well as from speculation amid mounting concerns on supplies and dollar weakness. (FT, 2008-04-18)

Fresh impetus came from a series of news: warnings that 'Nigeria risks loosing a third of its oil output by 2015 unless it finds ways' to boost funding (FT, 2008-04-16), a threatening strike for pensions at a Scottish refinery, escalation of violence in the Niger Delta, a 'darkened outlook for long-term supplies' from Saudi Arabia, the OPEC's reiteration that 'there was no need to pump more oil' at the International Energy Forum in Rome (FT, 2008-04-21), evidence of accelerating Chinese demand ahead of the Olympic Games (FT, 2008-04-22). A life-time low of the dollar against the euro along with rising concern that 'soaring food prices would provoke a rethink' of governmental support for biofuels in Europe and the US finally 'sent' WTI crude to $119.90 a barrel. (FT, 2008-04-23)

What happened
from 2008-04-09 to 2008-04-15?

'Unexpectedly large falls' in US crude and refined product inventories as revealed by latest weekly data 'pushed' oil prices above $112 a barrel. Fog in the Houston Ship Channel was related to a decline in crude imports. But traders attributed part of the energy market strength to a 'significant' tightening of the global distillate market, driven by a strong demand from Asia's and other emerging economies. (FT, 2008-04-09, 2008-04-10) In its monthly report, the International Energy Agency IEA concluded that the OPEC had 'quietly begun to reduce its oil production', though linking some of the decrease in supply to disruptions in Nigeria and Iraq. Forthcoming 'seasonal demand downturn may highlight differences between official pronouncements [by OPEC] and actual output', the IEA said, and warned that robust demand from Asian markets 'was likely to counterbalance' a slowdown in US demand. (FT, 2008-04-12) Renewed dollar weakness, but particularly continuing supply concerns were related to a further boost in oil prices: a sabotage in Nigeria, a pipline outage in the Gulf of Mexico, and warnings from a Lukoil executive, that 'oil production in Russia has peaked'. Good news of a huge offshore discovery in Brazil, however, 'sent a wave of speculation through European equity markets'. (FT, 2008-04-14, 2008-04-15)

What happened
from 2008-04-02 to 2008-04-08?

Oil prices rose sharply 'as investors digested the latest US inventories data': Crude stocks registered a large increase which was partly referred to increased imports. However, demand for gasoline had surged unexpectedly and 'raised concerns over supplies of petrol for the summer driving season'. (FT, 2008-04-02) Investors in equity markets 'remained hopeful' though Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman, 'admitted for the first time that a US recession was a possibility'. (FT, 2008-04-03) But oil prices were further boosted by dollar weakening after 'disappointing US employment data', a fire at a key European refinery in Finland, and news of China's consent to 'a substantial cut in value-added tax on crude imports' to help oil refining companies 'limit their heavy losses'. (FT, 2008-04-05, 2008-04-07) The US Energy Information Administration raised its 2008 average forecast for WTI crude above $100. (FT, 2008-04-08) In the run-up to the forum of the world’s consumers and producers in Rome, OPEC ministers rejected US and European calls for increased supply asserting that 'overall demand would soften in the following months'. The International Energy Agency disagreed, 'the US slowdown would not necessarily have an impact on the demand growth of China, India, the Middle East and Russia'. (FT, 2008-04-09)

What happened
from 2008-03-26 to 2008-04-01?

Weekly data showed US refiners restricting output to its lowest level since hurricanes Katrina and Rita hit in 2005, while crude stocks were unchanged, 'against expectations for an increase'. The following surge in oil prices by more than $4 a barrel hurt US equity markets amid 'disappointing US economic reports'. (FT, 2008-03-26) Saboteurs' attack on a key export pipeline in Iraq pushed crude prices above $108 a barrel, but news of restored supplies helped them ease again. (FT, 2008-03-27, 2008-03-28) Further downward pressure was said to be 'exerted by the repositioning of speculative flows'. (FT, 2008-03-31)

What happened
from 2008-03-19 to 2008-03-25?

Commodity markets suffered widespread speculative selling 'as funds reduced risk, liquidated positions and moved into the safety of cash as a precautionary measure following the demise of Bear Stearns'. Oil prices sank sharply, below $100 a barrel, 'dragged lower by clear evidence of weakening US demand', while 'short covering before Easter' and news of record demand from China for West African crude were reported to feed into recovery. (FT, 2008-03-20) Analysts debated over 'whether this week's action marked a temporary correction or a bubble bursting after unprecedented new investor inflows this year'. (FT, 2008-03-22)

What happened
from 2008-03-12 to 2008-03-18?

After further evidence of demand weakening from US weekly inventories data, crude oil prices initially dipped, however, 'fuelled by weakness in the US dollar' soared to breach $111 a barrel, just at a time when warnings of higher petrol prices came in from the US government. Gold touched the $1,000 a troy ounce level for the first time. Retail sales data had 'confirmed that the US is in recession and concern intensified about spreading distress in the hedge fund sector'. (FT, 2008-03-13) Long-dated crude oil futures prices surged above $100 a barrel. (FT, 2008-03-16) Commodity prices continued their run and global stock markets 'swung wildly', with news of a rescue operation by the Federal Reserve for Bear Stearns, the US investment bank, a cut in discount rate for banks and the opening up of the discount window. The US interest rate was lowered to 2.25 per cent. (FT, 2008-03-19)

What happened
from 2008-03-05 to 2008-03-11?

At its meeting in Vienna the OPEC decided to leave production levels unchanged, as anticipated. (FT, 2008-03-07) Further weakness of the dollar and concerns over financial markets and the global economy 'added impetus to oil's advance'. (FT, 2008-03-11) Oil prices came close to breaking through $110 a barrel after the International Energy Agency IEA in its monthly report said that the global oil demand growth in 2008 would be 'robust, boosted by consumption in China and the Middle East'. Prices would be 'unlikely to return to levels seen in the early part of this decade.' (FT, 2008-03-12) Financial markets were buoyed as the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank announced a co-ordinated, radical intervention to boost liquity. (FT, 2008-03-12)

What happened
from 2008-02-27 to 2008-03-04?

Signals from chairman Ben Bernanke that the Federal Reserve could continue to cut interest rates 'helped' the dollar break through the psychological $1.50 level against the euro. (FT, 2008-02-27) The dollar dipped into fresh lows shortly after warnings from Warren Buffett, 'the billionaire investor', that 'the US economy was in a recession'. (FT, 2008-03-03) Oil prices soared to new highs. They were widely cited as being driven by the weaker dollar, but 'also tied to the conviction that the global economy is proving resilient in the face of the US downturn'. (FT, 2008-02-27) 'Supply losses, strong demand and low inventory levels' would be 'the key drivers, not exchange rates'. (FT, 2008-02-28) News of increased US inventories, a deal between Venezuela and Eni, the Italian energy group, a small pipeline leak in Nigeria and increasing tensions in Latin America between Colombia, Venezuela and Ecuador in response to a Colombian cross-border attack on rebels drew trader's attention. Their 'main focus', however, remained on the approaching OPEC meeting in Vienna. (FT, 2008-02-29) 'Profit-taking dragged oil lower' as the OPEC, who continued to blame speculation, geopolitical tensions and the dollar weakness for record oil prices rather than a shortness of supply, was set to maintain current production quotas. (FT, 2008-03-05)

What happened
from 2008-02-20 to 2008-02-26?

The Federal Reserve revised its 2008 economic growth forecast downward saying 'it also expected higher unemployment and inflation'. (FT, 2008-02-20) Stronger than expected US consumer prices data had heightened some concerns that rising inflation may prevent further aggressive interest rate cuts to reduce the risk of recession --- the US headline index of business activity had come in at its lowest level for seven years. However, the Fed would 'focus on the economy first and then inflation', economists argued. (FT, 2008-02-27) The dollar saw a new low against the euro while oil prices were settling at new record highs above $100 a barrel, supported by colder weather in the US, speculation about the OPEC's next move and geopolitical tensions. In Nigeria, fears of an escalation of violence was growing with militants' concern over the fate of a leading member in detention. An approval against last year's presidential elections, however, was finally dismissed by the Nigerian court, raising investors' hopes for speedy reforms in the oil and gas sector. (FT, 2008-02-27)

What happened
from 2008-02-13 to 2008-02-19?

WTI crude hit a new record price of $100.10 a barrel before closing at $100.01. In the run-up to this end, the International Energy Agency had significantly reduced its forecast for the growth of 2008 global oil consumption, despite of 'still-robust projections' for Asia and the Middle East, but warning that the market would be 'tight' with inventories per daily consumption in OECD countries at a three-year low. (FT, 2008-02-13) However, comments from OPEC's president had dashed hopes for an increase of production quota at the cartel's March meeting, and a series of supply problems was 'feeding through rapidly into higher and more volatile prices': the continuing legal debate between Venezuela and ExxonMobil, an explosion at Alon's Big Spring refinery in Texas, a pipeline leak in Nigeria, and Lukoil's stopping of crude supplies from Russia to German refineries as leverage in a pricing conflict. (FT, 2008-02-20)

What happened
from 2008-02-06 to 2008-02-12?

Crude oil prices initially fell as US weekly inventories data revealed a huge increase in crude stocks with refineries having reduced utilisation for a fourth week. Supported by colder US weather, prices rebounded on reports of supply problems in the North Sea and in Nigeria where the states' pressure for more cash from a special account set up to save windfall oil earnings has been raising fears for the country's economic reform programme. (FT, 2008-02-08) The price rally extended as Venezuela threatened to halt oil supplies to the US as part of a legal dispute with ExxonMobil over compensation for the Orinoco projects the company had lost to Venezuelan nationalisation efforts. (FT, 2008-02-09) Two new members were elevated to the DJIA: Bank of America and Chevron (in place of Altria Group and Honeywell from February 19). The substitutions were reported to 'reflect the growing importance of oil and gas to the global economy'. (FT, 2008-02-12)

What happened
from 2008-01-30 to 2008-02-05?

A second cut of US interest rates in just over a week 'failed to soothe persistent worries about the US economic outlook'. (FT, 2008-02-01) A larger-than-forecast increase in US crude inventories was reported and further evidence of demand softening. At its February meeting in Vienna the OPEC blamed '"psychological factors" and geopolitics for adding a $30 premium to oil prices'. (FT, 2008-02-01) The cartel agreed that there was no need to increase supplies, warning instead that a further economic slowdown would make an output reduction more likely. Oil prices moved lower, though receiving upward pressure by dense fog in the Houston Ship Channel and Turkish military operations in northern Iraq. A rebels' attack on the capital in Chad was fought back but 'raised stakes' for western policy in Africa. (FT, 2008-02-05) While Gulfsands Petroleum received a go-ahead from the Syrian government, in an internal memo Nigerian government was blamed for setting the future of Shell's Nigerian onshore business at risk. (FT, 2008-01-31, 2008-01-06)

What happened
from 2008-01-23 to 2008-01-29?

Statoil, Norway's national oil company, signed a deal with Venezuela to survey its rich oil reserves in the Orinoco Belt. (FT, 2008-01-24) Markets 'welcomed' the prospect of an US bond insurer rescue plan, 'encouraging' economic data from the US, Germany and China, and strong corporate data from Nokia and Allianz. Investors 'largely shrugged off' the revelation of a massive fraud by a derivatives trader at Société Générale in Paris. (FT, 2008-01-25) Crude oil prices forged ahead to trade above $90 a barrel, 'after latest US inventory data' and 'as traders speculated about possible outcomes' to the upcoming OPEC meeting. (FT, 2008-01-28) On the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, the leading oil-importing economies had met in an exceptional gathering and signalled their increasing worries about the impact of record oil prices on inflation and economic growth.

Extreme cold weather and large snowfalls left China suffering 'its worst power crisis in years', acute coal shortage leading to record coal prices in Asia. Prices in the US, Latin America and Europe boomed, and 'substantial repercussions for oil and base metals markets' were anticipated. (FT, 2008-01-29)

What happened
from 2008-01-16 to 2008-01-22?

Extreme nervousness was running rampant in equity markets as risk measures indicated 'crisis', with an 'even more gloomy' sentiment in Asia. (FT, 2008-01-17) The list of industry groups in a bear market was growing. Disappointing figures from Intel, announced cutbacks at mobile phone company Sprint Nextel, and in particular a downgrade of US bond insurer Ambac Financial added to increasing recession fears. The outline of a fiscal package designed to stimulate US economy 'did little to imbue the market with confidence'. (FT, 2008-01-19)

On Monday European equities plunged, following dramatic declines across Asian markets. Many indices saw their biggest one-day losses since September 2001. An avalanche of sell-orders was released. US markets were closed for a national holiday, while US index futures pointed to steep losses on Tuesday opening. Then the US Federal Reserve announced an emergency interest rate cut of 75 basis points. European and Asian stocks rebounded, but it did not prevent the Dow Jones Industrial Average from closing below 12000. (FT, 2008-01-22)

The turmoil hit energy and metals commodity markets as well. Crude oil prices were dragged down below $90 a barrel. The fall was less acute than in the financial market, but commodities traders were concerned that 'this could be a first sign that emerging markets economic growth is beginning to suffer contagion from the US slowdown'. (FT, 2008-01-22) The OPEC restated that 'near record prices are not related to (oil) market fundamentals'. (FT, 2008-01-21) Days before, the International Energy Agency had lowered its forecast for world crude oil demand in 2008 'as the US economy slowdown and high oil prices would damp consumption in industrialised countries', but warned that that the oil market had tightened. (FT, 2008-01-16)

What happened
from 2008-01-09 to 2008-01-15?

Oil prices slipped further back on concerns about an impending recession in the US economy and fears of weakening demand. Federal Reserve raised the prospect of interest rate cuts at the end of the month in order to 'offset the downside risks to growth'. (FT, 2008-01-11) However, US stocks plunged after Citigroup revealed a record quarterly loss and retail sales declined unexpectedly. (FT, 2008-01-15) The OPEC disclaimed that it could be drawn on calls for increased oil supply, but announced to discuss its production policy on its February meeting. At the same time, OPEC ministers warned that one has to be careful before taking action in view of the risk for a large price decline in the event of an US recession. (FT, 2008-01-16)

What happened
from 2008-01-03 to 2008-01-08?

Following the extraordinary start into the new year for commodity markets, which was mainly dubbed a speculative phenomenon, oil set a new record of $100.09 a barrel in intraday trade after US inventories data showed a fall in crude stocks. But oil prices failed to maintain the above-$100 level. Disappointing US manufacturing and employment data 'fuelled fears that the US could be heading into recession in 2008'. (FT, 2008-01-04) Prices got a temporary boost again by reports on threats of escalation between US warships and Iranian Revolutionary Guard boats in the Straits of Hormuz. (FT, 2008-01-08)

What happened
from 2007-12-26 to 2008-01-02?

Concerns over the strength of the US economy and a further drop in US crude inventories were maintaining an upward pressure on oil prices. China's announcement to halve tax on oil products provided a modest boost, while an earthquake in Venezuela had a more significant impact. (FT, 2007-12-26) However, geopolitical events in Asia and the Middle East pushed oil prices within striking distance of a new record breaking level: Turkish attacks on Kurdish camps in northern Iraq and Russia's sale of an anti-aircraft missile system to Iran 'ruffled some feathers'. But the assassination of former Pakistan Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto 'unleashed a fresh wave of speculative buying'. (FT, 2007-12-29) Then the first stock trading day of the new year was the day when crude oil prices briefly hit the $100-a-barrel level for the first time, 'following deepening fears about the weakness of the US dollar'. Prices were said to have also benefited from renewed tensions in Nigeria and from news on Chinese refineries that would be running at record levels to offset a gasoline shortage. (FT, 2008-01-03)

What happened
from 2007-12-19 to 2007-12-25?

Weather-related problems affecting the Houston Ship Channel had a major impact on US imports, and US crude stocks had dropped to their lowest level since February 2005. (FT, 2007-12-20)

What happened
from 2007-12-12 to 2007-12-18?

After the decision of the Federal Reserve System to cut interest rates the oil price got a significant move on. The International Energy Agency (IEA) published a revised forecast of a higher than expected oil demand in 2008 which helped the price rebound. (FT, 2007-12-15) Oil prices were 'dragged down by concerns about the strength of the world economy'. (FT, 2007-12-17) In an effort to strengthen ties with countries in the Middle East and to secure long-term oil imports, the Japan Bank for International Co-operation made a $3bn loan move to the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company. (FT, 2007-12-18)

What happened
from 2007-12-05 to 2007-12-11?

A shortfall in US crude stocks and the OPEC's announcement of an unchanged oil production raised oil prices. (FT, 2007-12-06) On the west coast of South Korea a barge caused an oil spillage disaster after it rammed into a Hong Kong-registered tanker. (FT, 2007-12-11) Crude oil prices jumped after a bullish oil demand analysis was released by the US government: 'Despite an economic slowdown in the US, global oil demand would grow much faster than non-OPEC supply.' An ice storm in the Midwest that paralyzed pipelines made prices rise further. (FT, 2007-12-12)

What happened
from 2007-11-28 to 2007-12-04?

Duma elections were held in Russia with predictable outcome and modest influence on stock markets. Commodity markets continued movement of consolidation. As US inventory data revealed a less-than-expected decline, oil prices slipped. But prices fell sharply with fears about a potential slow-down in US economy and the prospect of a production increase by OPEC to cool down record oil prices damaging the world's economy. Neither a plot on oil installations in Saudi Arabia nor an explosion in a pipeline system between Canada and the US could support the level of oil prices. (FT, 2007-12-01) Concerns that some cartel members could now oppose to any changes in supply levels were mitigated as Saudi Arabia testified a 'sound outlook for oil demand' thanks to the winter season. But OPEC kept oil markets guessing. (FT, 2007-12-03)

What happened
from 2007-11-21 to 2007-11-27?

WTI crude oil prices had hit a nominal peak of USD 99.29 a barrel. However, on the prospect that OPEC would agree to withdraw from policies of restrained production at its meeting in Abu Dhabi, crude prices moved down. (FT, 2007-11-28.)

What happened
from 2007-11-14 to 2007-11-20?

The Riyadh summit ended without a clear signal about whether the cartel would argue for increasing supplies on its policy meeting in December. Crude prices were on rise again after some members had expressed their concern at the impact of falling US currency on their revenues. (FT, 2007-11-20.) A surge in prices towards USD 100 a barrel could be witnessed and found common explanations in 'the weak dollar and a mammoth flow of speculators deserting the credit market and jumping into commodities'. (FT, 2007-11-22)

What happened
from 2007-11-07 to 2007-11-13?

The idea of 'speculative' crude oil trades which were leading to 'exaggerated prices' gained traction among US lawmakers and OPEC officials who called for tighter regulation of oil markets. (FT, 2007-11-08) Fears of supply shortage due to the increasing demand from developing nations, particularly China, helped to propel oil prices, particularly exacerbated with the International Energy Agency IEA's warning in its World Energy Outlook that a crunch may happen before 2015. On the occasion of the Riyadh key oil summit the OPEC underlined its concerns about continued world economic growth and asserted the reliability of supply. (2007-11-12.)

What happened
from 2007-10-31 to 2007-11-06?

As crude oil hit a new record China decided to rise state-controlled retail prices in order to relieve its top refiner SinOPEC which sources part of its supplies on the global market. The US and China called on the OPEC to boost its supply and replenish inventories to meet impending higher demands in the winter season. (FT, 2007-11-01.) Russia which profits from high oil prices was fueling political and economical tensions with the West in the run-up of Duma elections by early December.

What happened
from 2007-10-24 to 2007-10-30?

The record-breaking rally continued due to a combination of renewed geopolitical tension over Iran's nuclear programme, the weakness of the US dollar and low stocks. A price leap came after Mexico's anouncement to reduce output in the face of a cold weather front in the Gulf of Mexico. (FT, 2007-10-28.)

What happened
from 2007-10-17 to 2007-10-23?

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East went on as the Turkish parliament approved a motion that legitimated Ankara to attack Kurdish separatists in northern Iraq. Prices dipped briefly on the expectation of an increase in production ahead of the OPEC's December meeting.

What happened
from 2007-10-10 to 2007-10-16?

Crude oil prices were driven by reports on low inventories due to a robust demand for energy from developing countries and the OPEC's hesitant boost of production. Amid fears of short energy supplies ahead of the winter peak, prices jumped to a new record high. Turkey's threat of a military operation against Kurdish separatists in northern Iraq spurred the price progress. (FT, 2007-10-16.)

What happened
from 2007-10-03 to 2007-10-09?

Crude oil prices remained volatile, however weakened with a recovery in the dollar which was said to play a key role for a downward pressure across commodity markets. (FT, 2007-10-03.) Shell resumed some production from its oil field in Nigeria that had been largely closed since militants attacked it in February 2006. (FT, 2007-10-08.)

What happened
from 2007-09-26 to 2007-10-02?

Previous week's run of crude oil prices was damped: 'Disappointing Consumer confidence and housing data intensified recession fears in the US economy'. (FT, 2007-09-26.) The extent of storm disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico was less than expected. US inventories data showed a surprise increase in crude stocks as refineries moved into maintenance season. (FT, 2007-09-27.)